AI is paying off for seven companies. That's it.
Apollo's chief economist finds no AI payoff outside big tech.
Benjamin White, building at the intersection of emerging tech, media, and culture.
Every earnings call this year has had the word AI in it. Apollo's chief economist has now checked whether it's showing up in the numbers, and outside big tech it isn't. The Magnificent 7 are seeing revenue per worker and margins climb. The other 493 companies in the S&P 500 are flat.
That matters because the whole market has been priced as if AI lifts everyone. So far it lifts the people selling the shovels and the people who own the biggest mines. Everyone else is buying licences, running pilots and hoping.
My take: this isn't proof that AI is a bubble. It's proof that the payoff is concentrated. The tools are real, and I build with them every week. But turning a tool into margin takes rebuilding how a business works, not adding a chatbot to the website. The companies that do that rebuild will show up in the numbers eventually. The ones that don't will keep spending and keep wondering why.
Watch the 493, not the seven.
Apollo's chief economist says AI has delivered no financial payoff outside big tech. Revenue per worker and margins are rising for the Magnificent 7 and flat for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500.
The AI trade is seven companies in a trench coat. Everyone else is paying for the coat.